Archive for March, 2011

Quaff next? Exploring the global future for Australian wine

At the University of Adelaide’s Research Tuesday lecture on 8 March 2011, Professor Kym Anderson identified key trends in the global wine industry, using data from the forthcoming University of Adelaide publication Global wine markets 1961 to 2009: a statistical compendium, due for release in April 2011.

The focus of the presentation was to understand how the wine industry has arrived at the situation it now finds itself in, and what the prospects might be for the next two decades out to 2030.

Boom-bust cycles have been a feature of the Australian wine industry since its birth in the mid-1800s. The latest boom period is defined as the period 1987-2004 where Australia fared extremely well both domestically and overseas. Many factors were in its favour. Since then however, a number of factors have come together in a perfect storm to produce this current downswing, including a strong Australian dollar, an increasingly competitive global market, changing market and marketing conditions and consumer preferences, and climactic factors.

Professor Anderson looked at the trends in wine production, consumption and trade in the Old World, New World and ‘rest of the world’ countries, particularly since 1980. The Old World refers to France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Germany, and the New World refers to the USA, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, Chile and South Africa. An interesting summary table of developments in shares of global wine production, consumption and trade are shown in the table below.

  1980-84 2009 2009
  volume volume value
Share of global production (%)
Old World 5 58 53 50
New World 6 18 26 30
Rest of the world 34 21 20
Share of global consumption (%)
Old World 5 53 28 60
New World 6 19 21 31
Rest of the world 28 41 9
Share of global exports (%)
Old World 5 76 34 67
New World 6 2 26 24
Rest of the world 22 40 9

 

Professor Anderson discussed the inherent strength of the Australian wine industry and the challenges lying ahead for producers and marketers.

Listen to his presentation here and view his presentation here.

Global wine markets 1961 to 2009: a statistical compendium will be available directly from the University of Adelaide Press (pdf free; paperback $35).

Professor Anderson is the George Gollin Professor of Economics and foundation Executive Director of the Wine Economics Research Centre at the University of Adelaide.

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